land in the fog? http://Commentbug.com
Western experts mull causes of Polish president's plane crash
As investigators work to identify the cause of an air crash near
the Russian city of Smolensk on Saturday, in which Polish
President Lech Kaczynski, his wife, and 94 top officials died,
speculations about the issue remain a hot topic among Western
experts
AGEING PLANE?
Some experts suggest that the age of the presidential three-
engine Tu-154, built in 1984, was to blame.
The New York Times cited Paul Hayes, director of accidents
and insurance at London-based aviation consultancy Ascend, as
saying Russia halted mass production of the jet about 20 years
ago and about 200 of them are still in service around the world.
He said the Polish presidential model was one of the youngest
of those still in service.
Polish media said former Polish Prime Minister Leszek Miller,
who survived a helicopter crash in 2003, had long predicted
such a disaster. Polish officials requested the replacement of
the government's aging air fleet but were told there were not
enough funds.
James Fallows, a National Correspondent for American
magazine The Atlantic said "initial worried speculation about
the 'aging' Russian Tupolev-154 aircraft was probably beside the
point".
Polish TV quoted Alexei Gusev, the head of the maintenance
plant in the Russian Volga city of Samara that recently carried
out major overhaul work on the airplane, as saying that the
presidential Tu-154 was safe.
"From the moment it entered service, the plane had had
5,004 flight hours and 1,823 landings, which, for an aircraft of
this class, is not a lot," he said.
The BBC News web site quotes a review of a Tu-154 written in
2004 by expert in Russian aviation Paul Duffy. He said that only
a few of the 28 planes lost in accidents up to that date had
crashed because of technical failure.
"The Tu-154 operates in regions with not very good air traffic
control and navigation equipment, and in very difficult weather
conditions," Duffy said, adding that some of the accidents had
little relation to the aircraft itself.
BAD WEATHER?
Fallows said in The Atlantic Magazine that initial reports that
the Smolensk field in Russia was covered with heavy fog at the
time of the crash could point at bad weather as the villain.
"The fundamental problem with landing in fog is that you
can't see the runway as you descend," he said. "If you can't see
the runway, you're in the same predicament as someone
driving 100mph on a twisty road in dense fog - you're headed
for destinations you can't see," he said.
HUMAN ERROR?
Aviation expert, Tomash Shultz, said in an interview with
TBN-24 TV-channel that the crash was the pilot's fault.
"There was a problem with the pilot, who under usual
circumstances would have refused to land the plane; however,
this time he tried to land it three or four times, and this was an
emergency situation," Shultz said, adding the pilot was under
pressure to land the plane because Polish officials were on
board.
The New York Times said the investigators are to look into
why the pilot did not heed instructions from air traffic
controllers to give up trying to land in bad weather and
whether he felt under pressure to land to make sure that the
Polish delegation would not be late for the Katyn ceremony.
The paper said Kaczynski had got into a dispute in August
2008 with a pilot flying his plane to the Georgian capital of
Tbilisi, during Russia's brief war with Georgia, demanding that
the pilot land despite dangerous conditions. However, the pilot
disobeyed the order and landed in the neighboring Azerbaijani
capital of Baku.
The Polish newspaper Dziennik said the Polish president
threatened the pilot might face consequences for disobeying
orders.
"If someone decides to become a pilot, he shouldn't have any
fears," Kaczynski said. "We'll deal with this matter when we
return".
In the end the pilot received a medal for his services instead
of punishment.
British newspaper the Guardian quoted the former Polish
president Lech Walesa as saying that it was too early to state
the cause for sure, but the pilot could have been pressured by
the Polish president and his delegation to land.
"Sometimes the plane captain would make the decision
himself, even against the recommendations," Walesa told the
newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza.
CONSPIRACY THEORIES
A number of conspiracy theories have already been conjured
up in attempts to explain the disaster.
British newspaper The Daily Mail quoted Edward Lucas, a
leading expert on East European affairs, as saying that
although there is no evidence that the crash was caused by
sabotage, many Poles will think foul play was involved because
of the historical parallels.
Kaczynski was flying to Smolensk to take part in memorial
ceremonies to mark the 70th anniversary of the massacre of
thousands of Polish officers by the by Soviet secret police in
the World War II in Katyn forest near Smolensk. It remains one
of the most painful historical events for the Polish people.
MOSCOW, April 12 (RIA Novosti, by Ekaterina Chernyaeva)
RIA Novosti
às Monday, April 12, 2010
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